POS Data as an Indicator of Corporate Sales

By NRI | 2019 September

POS data is a collection of daily sales information of Japanese retail stores, collected from the largest retail panel in the country. POS data has No. 1 retailer sample design in Japan with the highest-level of quality management. The data includes:

  • ・ Sales date
  • ・ Location, business category, geographical information
  • ・ Sales volume by SKU level
  • ・ Sales price and other product attributes

Using data on 137 tickers included in POS sample data, we examined the correlation between

  1. Implied quarterly sales: sales calculated by aggregating sales data in POS data on a quarterly basis
  2. Actual quarterly sales: quarterly sales reported by the corresponding corporate

We found that relatively high correlation were found in Foods sector and Small cap tickers. Furthermore, Foods sector dominated the top 50 while some Pharmaceutical and Chemicals sector made it to top 50 as well.

These examples of high correlation indicate that with POS data, investors can estimate actual sales and earnings of retailers, especially for those with high correlation such as Food and small cap sector.

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