Consumer Transaction Data as an Indicator of Corporate Sales

By NRI | 2019 September

Consumer Transaction Data (hereinafter “CTD”) is a collection of daily shopping information of Japanese domestic consumers. Gathered from the largest consumer panels in the country, CTD includes detailed insights including:

  • ・ Demographic attributes
  • ・ Data/time of shopping
  • ・ Retail chain brand names and specific store locations visited
  • ・ Sales volume by SKU, price and other product attributes

CTD, has proven, reliable quality management and captures actual purchasing in detail, making it the leading consumer data in Japan.

We examined the correlation between

  1. Implied quarterly sales: sales calculated by aggregating sales data in CTD on a quarterly basis
  2. Actual quarterly sales: quarterly sales reported by the corresponding corporate

, where we observed high correlation between the implied quarterly sales and actual quarterly sales.
There were cases where the correlation between our YoY (year-on-year) change rates of implied quarterly sales and those of actual quarterly sales were high.

These examples of high correlation indicate that with CTD, investors can estimate actual sales and earnings of retailers, especially for those with high correlation.

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